drug war | PROBABLE CAUSE

As I looked at Edgar Valdez Villarreal’s smiling, smug photo in the newspaper this morning, I wondered what his photo might look like a decade from now after he serves his first ten years of what will no doubt be a very long sentence in prison. I suspect the American born drug lord called “the Barbie” by the Mexicans because of his fair complexion and green eyes will not be smiling smugly in future photos.

Villarreal is the third major Mexican drug lord killed or captured in less than a year. Mexican President Felipe Calderon has been roundly criticized for pursuing an aggressive war against organized crime and the cartels in the face of escalating violence that has claimed an estimated 28,000 lives. But what, I ask, is the alternative?

Calderon could just ignore the cartels and the massive flow of drugs into the U.S. Before he decided enough was enough, Mexico was well on its way to becoming the next Somalia, a country controlled by warring, well-armed gangs and corrupt government officials. Earlier this week, 72 immigrants were murdered on their way to the U.S. by the Zeta drug cartel. Human trafficking has become an additional source of income for the drug cartels, as they grow more desperate for money to fund their operation. Yesterday, a firebomb killed eight people in a bar in Cancun. The owner of the bar had refused to pay extortion money to the Zetas. If the violence continues to expand into tourist areas such as Cancun, Mexico’s economy could suffer a devastating blow.

Colombia, under the leadership of former President Alvaro Uribe and newly elected President Juan Manuel Santos, has pursued a similar strategy against the FARC and the Colombian cartels. As a result of these security policies, Marxist guerrillas are on the run, kidnappings have been reduced, and the economy is on the rebound.

Rather than ignoring or aggressively pursuing the cartels, Former Mexican President Vicente Fox has joined with those urging Calderon to legalize drugs in Mexico, saying that could break the economic power of the country’s brutal drug cartels. Calderon has agreed to open the door to discussions about the legalization of drugs, even though he remains opposed to the idea.

The Mexican government spends about $8.2 billion annually on law enforcement. It’s estimated that it would save between 5 percent and 15 percent of GDP if narcotics were legal in all countries. But those savings fall to as low as 1 percent if drugs were legalized only in Mexico. Ultimately, all countries, including the U.S., would have to legalize and regulate the drug trade. It’s extremely unlikely that will happen.

And so Calderon is left with little choice but to aggressively challenge and pursue men like Villarreal. The violence and deaths will continue, but my guess is, the drug lords who have managed to avoid killing or capture are not smiling now.

During the 1980s, Pablo Escobar and his ruthless Medellín Cartel became synonymous with violence and death in Colombia. His policy in dealing with law enforcement and government officials was known as plata o plomo, silver or lead. Those that couldn’t be bribed were killed. This resulted in the deaths of hundreds, including civilians, policemen and state officials. Escobar was also responsible for the murder of Colombian presidential candidate Luis Carlos Galán as well as the bombing of Avianca Flight 203 and the DAS building bombing in Bogotá in 1989. That year, Forbes magazine estimated he had a personal fortune of $25 billion, making him the seventh-richest man in the world. His Medellín cartel controlled 80% of the global cocaine market. The Colombian government finally went on the offensive and Escobar was eventually hunted down and killed in 1993. While the majority of cocaine is still produced in Colombia and cartels still exist, Mexican cartels have grown increasingly more powerful. The State Department estimates that 90% of cocaine entering the United States transits Mexico.

Facing a situation similar to Colombia’s in the 1980s and 1990s, Mexican President Felipe Calderón declared war on the drug traffickers after his election in 2006 by deploying nearly 45,000 troops and 5,000 federal police to 18 states. As in Colombia, there has been an alarming increase in deaths. Estimates are that 9900 people have died in drug-related incidents since January 2007. Cities such as Tijuana and Nuevo Laredo have become armed camps. But Calderón’s war on the drug cartels has had an effect beyond the increased levels of violence and deaths. The U.S. government estimates that the amount of cocaine seized on U.S. soil dropped by 41 percent between early 2007 and mid-2008. And yesterday, Mexico captured Teodoro Garcia Simental, known as El Teo, one of Mexico’s major drug kingpins. His capture follows the arrest of Benjamin Arellano Felix and the death of his brother Raul, the leaders of the Arellano Felix gang.

Still, the U.S. Justice Department now considers the Mexican drug cartels the greatest organized crime threat to the United States as violence spills across the Mexican border. Officials in cities such as Phoenix have reported an alarming increase in killings, kidnappings and home invasions connected to Mexico’s cartels. Also, more than 200 Americans have been killed in Mexico since 2004. The governors of Arizona and Texas have asked the federal government to send additional National Guard troops to help those already there supporting local law enforcement efforts against drug trafficking.

While Colombia has experienced a continuing decrease in levels of violence as current President Alvaro Uribe continues the country’s war against drug traffickers and military groups like the FARC, it’s anyone’s guess whether Calderón and Mexico will succeed. The level of corruption runs deep.

Along with continued military and financial support to Colombia and Mexico, the U.S. could help reduce drug usage and violence by decriminalizing marijuana usage and treating it as a public health problem rather than a security problem. Studies have found that using drug user treatment to reduce drug consumption in the United States is seven times more cost effective than law enforcement efforts alone, and it could potentially cut consumption by a third. Decriminalization, particularly of small quantities of marijuana, might also save money and countless lives in Mexico and in the U.S.